Working in a changing world

A new world order

An economic model that has a significant impact on its natural ecosystem:

• Our economic model has brought about a climate emergency which, without major changes, will likely lead to an unsustainable future.
• Pressures on biodiversity are leading to a decline in ecosystem diversity and a collapse of flora and fauna. France is particularly affected by this decline, especially in its overseas territories.

An economy resilient to inflationary shocks and sudden hikes in interest rates:

• High inflation and a spike in interest rates were the hallmarks of 2022 and 2023.
• Nevertheless, advanced economies proved resilient thanks to various shock absorbers: fiscal support, monetary policy, investment encouraged by public strategies etc., against the backdrop of a tight labour market and abundant savings. Although economic activity slowed markedly, it did not plummet.
• China, a key player in the global economy, saw fairly disappointing growth in 2023 despite the lifting of health measures linked to Covid at the end of 2022.

A gradual recovery is expected in 2024-2025:

• In developed countries, the decline in inflation that began in 2023 should continue towards the 2% target in the eurozone and the United States.
• The Fed and the ECB should begin to cut their policy rates in 2024.
• Household purchasing power should improve, and consumption and investment will regain some momentum.
• The economy should experience a soft landing, followed by a gradual recovery, and the unemployment rate should rise, albeit at a moderate pace.
• China is set to regain some momentum in 2024, which will benefit its emerging partner countries, also supported by continued disinflation.

However, the geopolitical context remains a major source of uncertainty:

• Two major conflicts are fuelling global instability:
  • The war in Ukraine, a strategic critical moment for Europe and the world’s major powers;
  • The conflict in the Middle East, which could spread to the rest of the region and potentially affect shipping routes and prices.
• In 2024, almost half the world’s population is expected to go to the polls, and some of the elections have major geopolitical implications.
• Two key elections stand out on the global calendar for 2024: the Taiwanese election in January, against a backdrop of tensions with China, and the US presidential election in November, which will help to structure future global balances.
• A global geopolitical restructuring is underway, with value chains being reorganised as a result of the challenges of strategic autonomy and the urgency of tackling climate change, which are reshaping industrial policies and the geographical organisation of activities.

Increased regulatory requirements

• Plurality of regulatory authorities and tighter prudential rules.
• Stronger protection for customers and investors.
• Increased efforts to combat money laundering and the financing of terrorism.
• Widening and increasingly complex international sanctions programmes.
• Growing need for transparency and comparability of ESG policies.
• Recognition of climate and ESG risks in risk management.

A shift in customer attitudes

New priorities driving consumer-citizen choices

• Concern for the environment, social responsibility, expectations of a stronger and more genuine commitment on the part of corporates.
• Heightened expectations of loyalty, trust and transparency.
• Need for protection of people, property and assets and security against digital risk.
• Refocus on essentials forced by purchasing power or a choice to consume more responsibly.
• More confident individualism, with the desire to remain in control of one’s choices and destiny, and to understand in order to act.
• Immediacy and speed, rejection of time constraints, accessibility, comparison, digital connections to others.
• Price conscious (smart buying), with price transparency as a prerequisite.
• Preference for local products, trust in peers and the community, distrust of institutions.
• Focus on access (rather than ownership), short channels, second-hand purchases.

In response to the “all-digital” trend, the human dimension, proximity, social ties and community involvement are becoming more important

• Valuing human input:
  • Responsibility: deciding and acting quickly and efficiently.
  • Situational intelligence: helping customers to assess their situation, look ahead, revisit their choices and make the right decision.
  • Ingenuity/creativity: providing a solution for the customer in all circumstances.
  • Pooling of expertise: offering personalised, value-added support by drawing on a wide range of tailored expertise.
• Importance of community roots:
  • The importance of proximity has been reinforced by the health crisis.
  • Importance of the social function and the ties created by local actors (trade, associations etc.).

Main Sustainable Development Goals concerned

Multi-faceted competition

• Continued changes in the European banking landscape: closure/divestiture of online banks, deployment of complementary offers/brands (commercial banking, online banking etc.).
• Emergence and expansion of new players and diverse models: neobanks, aggregators, fintech companies, GAFA, other industries etc.
• Online banks and neobanks making inroads into new customer relationships.
• Technological changes and artificial intelligence.
• Expanded value proposition, elimination of barriers between industries and platform strategies.
• New fee models (free, usage options) that increase pricing pressure on the offers.

Main Sustainable Development Goals concerned

A succession of crises that are deepening social and regional inequalities

• Inequalities in income and wealth and an increase in financial insecurity.
• Growing gap in the ability to bounce back and adapt (education, digital fluency, mobility, employability etc.).
• Unequal attractiveness of regions: access to employment, transport, education, culture, health etc.
• Territorial divide in lifestyles between urban, suburban and rural areas.
• Young people and vulnerable populations more affected.
• Increase in claims due to climate change.

Main Sustainable Development Goals concerned

An acceleration in climate change and biodiversity deterioration

• Growing awareness of the climate emergency.
• Global commitments to fighting climate change and preserving biodiversity.
• Reinforcement of regulatory restrictions on the energy transition and protection of biodiversity.

Main Sustainable Development Goals concerned

Societal, family and business changes that disrupt traditional patterns

• Access to housing for everyone, adaptation of housing to new lifestyles and to the needs related to longer life expectancy and environmental issues.
• Food: greater attention paid to the impact on health, as well as the social and environmental impact; changes in purchasing habits and food behaviour.
• New forms of mobility: use rather than ownership, multi-modal or shared, taking into account environmental impact and energy costs.
• Access to employment, new ways of working (entrepreneurship, multi-salaried work, teleworking, globalisation of employment) and new occupations resulting from new technologies.
• Ageing: a new stage of life with active seniors, new intergenerational links and financial flows, issues of retirement and standard of living, health and dependency etc.
• Individual, personal and business itineraries are less linear, more uncertain, multiple and complex and generate more hazards.

Main Sustainable Development Goals concerned

¹See the website: « J’écorénove mon logement »